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BRENT OIL RISK REWARDS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY FURTHER UPSURGES SUPPLY 69 TO 77 IN NEXT 5 MONTHS , TRGTS 57 TO 37 IN NEXT 24 TO 30 MONTHS (CMP@67.58)


FROM THE RECENT LOW OF 27.10 WE SAW FRESH UPSURGE IN BRENT OIL UP TO 68.50,THE LONG TERM CHART STRUCTURE IS SUGGESTING THIS UPWARD MOVE WILL BE FIZZLE OUT NEAR CURRENT LEVELS.

AS PER THE CURRENT CHART STRUCTURE BRENT OIL TARDING IN NARROW RANGE OF 66.25-68.50, AND MONTHLY CHART SHOWING STRONG RESISTANCE NEAR CURRENT LEVELS. THE LONG TERM MOVING AVERAGE (SMA 50, 60, 72, 84,100 RESISTANCES)INDICATING HUGE SUPPLY ZONE NEAR CURRENT LEVELS.

WE AT TEAM NTD NOT SEEING ANY FURTHER UPSURGEABOVE73-76,RECENT FALL IN BRENT OIL TOOK ALMOST 58 MONTHS TO TOUCH THE LEVEL OF 27.10 FROM ITS LEVELS OF 127.10(APRIL 2011 TO JAN 2016), AND AS PER THE RECENT RISE IT HAS TOOK 24 MONTHS TO REACH CURRENT LEVELS.

AS PER THE LONG TERM CHART WE ARE SEEING THE UPWARD RALLY OF BRENT OIL FROM ITS RECENT LOW TO CURRENT LEVEL ITS TOOK 24 MONTHS TO RETRACE THE LAST DOWNFALL AND IN UPCOMING PERIOD WE ARE EXPECTING REVERSE DOWN MOVE IS DUE.


THE CALCULATIONS ARE BELOW:

AS PER THE LONG TERM BRENT OIL CHART THE FIBONACCI PRICEWISE & TIMEWISE  RETRACEMENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FOLLOWING LEVELS:(FROM TOP APRIL 2011@127.10$ TO JAN2016@27.10$)


 

RETRACEMENT LEVELS

PRICEWISE

MONTHS (TIMEWISE)

23.00%

27.10

13 MONTHS

38.00%

65.33

22 MONTHS

50%

77.13

29 MONTHS

61.80%

88.90

36 MONTHS

78.60%

105.73

45 MONTHS

88.20%

115.33

51 MONTHS

100%

127.10

58 MONTHS








AS PER THE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENTS IF WE CALCULATE RECENT RISE IT SUGGESTING FOLLOWING MONTHS FOR THE RESPECTIVE DOWNSIDE TARGET LEVELS.

WE WILL SEE BRENT OIL TO TOUCH THE LEVEL OF 57-37 IN UPCOMING TIME FRAME OF 20-24 MONTHS (2.5 YEARS APPROX) WHICHEVER IS EARLIER.

 IF WE CALCULATE THE LONG TERM BRENT OIL CHART AS PER THE FIBONACCI TIME& PRICE RETRACEMENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FOLLOWING POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE LEVELS:(JAN 2016@27.10$ TO JAN 2018@69.50$)



 

RETRACEMENT LEVELS

PRICEWISE

MONTHS (TIMEWISE)

23.00%

59.83

6 MONTHS  (JUNE 2018)

38.00%

53.53

9 MONTHS (SEPT 2018)

50%

48.45

12 MONTHS  ( NOV 2018)

61.80%

43.3

15 MONTHS (MAR 2019)

78.60%

36.12

19 MONTHS (JULY 2019)

88.20%

31.93

21 MONTHS (AUG 2019)

100%

27.1

24 MONTHS (NOV 2019)

 

 










PREVIOUS ANALYSIS:


Brent Oil - Crash??
https://www.ntdtrading.in/research-desc.php?pageid=245


BRENT OIL CAN APPRECIATE UP TO 80-100% IN NEXT 1.5 YEAR (CMP32$)
https://www.ntdtrading.in/research-desc.php?pageid=636



GIVEN ALL THE FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF PRICE AND TIME WE COME TO A CONCLUSION THAT, THE BRENT OIL
PREVIOUS INTERMEDIATE TOPS AT 69 DATED MAY 2015 AND CURRENTLY OVERBOUGHT RSI VALUE IN DAILY AND
WEEKLY AROUND 65 & 75.50 LEVELS.

GIVEN THE TIME AND PRICE RESISTANCE OF 29 MONTHS WHICH IS COMMING IN JUNE 2019 AND PRICE RESISTANCE OF
77, WHICH IS 50 PERCENT FIB LEVELS, AND DOWNWARD SLOPES OF MAJOR MONTHLY & YEARLY AVERAGES IS
INDICATING THE UPSIDE IS CAPPED BETWEEN 69 TO 78 LEVELS AND DOWNSIDE OPENS BELOW 66 FROM 57 TO 37 AND
ALL THE WAY UP TO PREVIOUS BOTTOMS IN NEXT 20-30 MONTHS.

 


{08 JAN 2018}





BRENT OIL MONTHLY CHART



BRENT OIL MONTHLY CHART

























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